![]() ![]() ![]() The framework provides a set of boundary conditions for constructing internally consistent, plausible representations of diverse futures. Since 2014 the framework has been used to develop long-term futures, providing insight into the potential effects of climate change on social-ecological systems, the effectiveness of adaptation and mitigation, and the policies necessary to reduce climate-related risks ( O'Neill et al., 2014). The parallel scenario framework is a sophisticated, global-scale architecture involving representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of greenhouse gas emissions, shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), and shared policy assumptions (SPAs) ( Ebi et al., 2014). The multi-scale and systemic nature of climate risk requires greater consideration of the ways in which responses to climate impacts and anticipated risks can be affected and influenced by conditions at the global, regional, and national scales ( Simpson et al., 2021). ![]() These heuristics may help refine the process of extending the parallel scenario framework to the local and enable cross-case comparisons. We summarize the internal trade-offs (personal time, clarity-complexity, speed-quality, push-pull) and the external stressors (equity and the role of science in society) that influence the extent to which heuristics are used as “rules of thumb,” rather than formal assessment. In this Perspective, we reflect on various contributions regarding the value of heuristics and propose the adoption of current definitions for Relevance, Credibility, and Legitimacy for guiding local scenario development as the most useful as well as using Effectiveness for evaluation purposes. Due to the growing use of scenarios, there is value in assessing these developments using criteria or, more specifically, heuristics that may be implicitly acknowledged rather than formally monitored and evaluated. They must link across scales, to account for the ways in which global changes affect and influence decision-making in local places. To enable the identification of possible impacts and assess vulnerability, these local-parallel scenarios must successfully accommodate diverse knowledge systems, multiple values, and competing priorities including both “top down” modeling and “bottom-up” participatory processes. Increasingly, researchers are developing extended scenarios, based on this framework, and incorporating them into adaptation planning and decision-making processes at the local level. Combining greenhouse gas emissions, social and economic trends, and policy responses, it enables researchers and policy makers to consider global-scale interactions, impacts and implications of climate change. The parallel scenario process provides a framework for developing plausible scenarios of future conditions. 2Gateway Antarctica, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.1Landscape Governance & Policy, Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research, Lincoln, New Zealand. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |